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事关14亿人大事!80万亿资金流向大逆转颠覆过去楼市逻辑!
2020-01-07 23:32  www.brandgoodsale.com

1如此庞大规模的外汇储备咋处理?放在那里,买美国国债,收益率那么低,怪可惜的。2如此庞大规模的居民储蓄咋处理?放在那里,没转化为国内需求,怪可惜的。现在,外汇储备两年内减少了近1万亿,现在稳定在3万亿左右,已经不是问题了。

What about such a large foreign exchange reserve? It's a shame to put it there and buy U.S. Treasuries on so low a yield. How do residents save on such a large scale? It's a shame that it's not translated into domestic demand. Now that foreign exchange reserves have fallen by nearly 1 trillion in two years and are now stable at around 3 trillion, it is no longer a problem.

中国的国民储蓄率增长非常快,从2000年的%飙升至2008年的%,搞得学界非常困惑,研究课题很多都是《中国高储蓄率的成因、影响和对策》。

The rapid growth of China's national savings rate, rising from% in 2000 to% in 2008, has puzzled the academic community.

2009年,周小川行长就明确表示:“中国降低储蓄率的意图是明确的,2005年以来中国将扩大内需、刺激消费作为基本国策。”

In 2009, mr zhou made it clear:\" china's intention to reduce its savings rate is clear that it has made expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption a basic state policy since 2005.\"

注意一点,我们深受儒家思想影响,有崇尚节俭,赡养老人、抚育子女的传统,在社会保障不健全的情况下,消费规模扩大,只是因为居民收入提升了。

Attention, we are deeply influenced by Confucianism, there is a tradition of advocating thrift, supporting the elderly, raising children, in the case of inadequate social security, consumption scale expansion, only because the income of residents has increased.

银行非常有意愿做个人抵押贷款,经过几轮房地产调控的教育,居民加杠杆意愿也非常高!网上有个嘲讽只储蓄不借贷的段子:

Banks are very willing to do personal mortgage loans, after several rounds of real estate regulation education, residents are also very high willingness to increase leverage! There's a joke online about saving and not borrowing:

你把钱存在银行,然后被人借着用来买房,最后你租着别人用你钱买来的房子,还得交着房租。之后,别人用着你的房租还着房贷,说不定还用着你的钱靠买房娶了他心目中的女神,最后啊,还邀请你去参加婚礼。

You put your money in a bank, you're used to buy a house, you end up renting a house that someone else bought with your money, and you have to pay your rent. After that, someone else uses your rent and still has a mortgage, you may also use your money to buy a house to marry the goddess of his mind, finally, also invites you to attend the wedding.

其中,2017年末住户部门净存款余额不仅比2015年2月份的历史峰值低了5万多亿元,而且比2012年末的余额都低了,2018年这一指标的下降有所减缓,但并未扭转。

At the end of 2017, the net deposit balance of household sector was not only more than 500 billion yuan lower than the historical peak in February 2015, but also lower than the balance at the end of 2012. The decline of this index slowed in 2018, but it was not reversed.

常规方法,没有几个企业有实力做开发商,所以搞预售,把居民的储蓄骗到手,去银行贷款,把居民存银行的储蓄再拿到手,然后把这些居民储蓄,都换成了钢筋水泥!

Conventional method, few enterprises have the strength to be developers, so pre-sale, the residents'savings to deceive the hands, go to the bank loans, the residents deposit bank savings and then get the hands, and then these residents savings, are replaced by reinforced concrete!

以前,开发商的核心竞争力和公司壁垒,不是研发、不是销售,甚至不是企业管理,而是谁跟银行关系好,谁能拿到低息的银行贷款。

Previously, the core competitiveness of developers and corporate barriers were not research and development, not sales, or even corporate management, but who had a good relationship with the bank and who could get a low-interest bank loan.

2008年以后,我国储蓄率开始一路下降,国民储蓄率在2011年跌至50%以下,2017年相比于2008年累计下降了个百分点,居民储蓄率相比于2008年也累计下降了个百分点。

After 2008, China's savings rate began to decline all the way, the national savings rate fell to less than 50% in 2011, the cumulative decline in 2017 compared to 2008 a percentage point, the resident savings rate compared to 2008 a cumulative decline of a percentage point.

根据OECD统计,2016年居民储蓄率最高的三个国家分别为瑞士、瑞典和墨西哥,其数值分别为%、%、%,英国居民储蓄率最低,仅为%。而2016年我国居民储蓄率高达%,是瑞士居民储蓄率的约2倍、英国居民储蓄率的约22倍。

According to the OECD, the three countries with the highest resident saving rates in 2016 were Switzerland, Sweden and Mexico, with values of%,% and%, respectively, and the UK with the lowest rate of resident saving at only%. And in 2016, China's resident saving rate was as high as%, about twice that of Swiss residents and about 22 times that of British residents.

对比一下数字:过去10年,房地产行业如此大爆发,而我们国民总储蓄率才降低了个百分点,居民储蓄率才降低了1个百分点。

Compare the numbers: the real estate industry has exploded in the past decade, and our gross national savings rate has fallen by one percentage point and the resident savings rate by one percentage point.

如果储蓄率降低一半,比如下降15个百分点,那么这个规模将远超想象,如此天量资金,将对社会财富产生翻天覆地的影响!

If the saving rate is halved, say, by 15 percentage points, then the scale will be far beyond imagination, and the amount of money will have an earth-shaking impact on social wealth!

加强重点领域风险防控。银行保险机构要落实“房住不炒”的定位,严格执行房地产金融监管要求,防止资金违规流入房地产市场,抑制居民杠杆率过快增长,推动房地产市场健康稳定发展。

Strengthen risk prevention and control in key areas. Banking and insurance institutions should implement the positioning of \"housing and not speculation,\" strictly enforce the requirements of real estate financial supervision, prevent the illegal flow of funds into the real estate market, curb the rapid growth of the leverage ratio of residents, and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.

美国居民部门杠杆率从20%上升到50%以上用了接近40年时间,而中国只用了不到10年,时间远少于美国,最近几年飙升的速度更是惊人。

It took nearly 40 years for the U.S. household sector's leverage to rise from 20% to more than 50%, while China has spent less than 10 years, much less than the U.S., and has soared even faster in recent years.

根据银保监会官网数据不完全统计,截至去年12月26日,银保监会系统对银行机构、保险机构等合计开出4108份罚单(按照公布日期计算),其中,银保监会机关开出罚单16份,银保监局本级开出罚单1560份,银保监分局本级开出罚单2532份。紧箍咒还没拿下来,房地产阵痛还在继续。

According to incomplete statistics on the CBRC's official website, as of December 26 last year, the CBRC system had issued 4108 fines (calculated on the date of publication) for banking institutions and insurance institutions. The tight spell hasn't come down yet, and the real estate pain continues.

“这个世界不是大灰狼和小白兔的世界,而是灰度法则指导运行下的世界。应对之法是,学会灰度法则下的坚持。”

\"The world is not the world of the wolf and the little white rabbit, but the world under the rule of gray. The answer is to learn how to stick to the gray rule.

檀香们也应该用这个思想来看未来的房地产市场:房地产“黄金时代已过,白银时代还在,白银时代也有周期”。而且房地产不是只有涨跌,还有上涨和下跌的幅度,要得分的非常清楚。

sandalwood should also use this idea to look at the future real estate market: real estate \"the golden age is over, the silver age is still there, and the silver age has a cycle \". And real estate is not only up and down, there are up and down the extent of the score is very clear.

北纬31度以北的大部分地级以上城市排名在下降,平均下降位;而北纬31度以南的地级以上城市排名在上升,平均上升位。

Most of the cities above the prefecture level north of latitude 31 N are in decline, with an average drop, while cities above the prefecture level south of latitude 31 N are in an upward, average rise.

叶檀老师经常说,以后分析城市,不能再按照一、二、三、四、五线来划分了,再这样划分,就显得太外行了,正确的方式是:按照都市圈、城市群来划分。

Ye Tan teacher often said that after the analysis of the city, can no longer be divided according to one, two, three, four, five lines, and then such a division, it appears too layman, the correct way is: according to the urban agglomeration, urban agglomeration to divide.

从提出《培育现代都市圈的指导意见》,到粤港澳大湾区规划,再到长三角一体化发展规划等等,我们的政策趋势就是,重点发展大都市区和城市群。

Our policy trend is to focus on the development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations.

具体到城市,就更简单了:12月15日,《求是》杂志发文点名了10个城市:北京、上海、广州、深圳、杭州、南京、武汉、郑州、成都、西安。

It's simpler to go to the city: on december 15th, the magazine called out 10 cities: beijing, shanghai, guangzhou, shenzhen, hangzhou, nanjing, wuhan, zhengzhou, chengdu and xi'an.

市场风云突变,股票市场,投资策略,一个月都得调整一次,量化交易差不多一周调整一次,没有永远赚钱一套策略。

Market upheaval, stock markets, investment strategies, have to be adjusted once a month, quantitative trading almost once a week, not always a set of strategies to make money.