What about such a large foreign exchange reserve? It's a shame to put it there and buy U.S. Treasuries on so low a yield. How do residents save on such a large scale? It's a shame that it's not translated into domestic demand. Now that foreign exchange reserves have fallen by nearly 1 trillion in two years and are now stable at around 3 trillion, it is no longer a problem.
The rapid growth of China's national savings rate, rising from% in 2000 to% in 2008, has puzzled the academic community.
In 2009, mr zhou made it clear:\" china's intention to reduce its savings rate is clear that it has made expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption a basic state policy since 2005.\"
Attention, we are deeply influenced by Confucianism, there is a tradition of advocating thrift, supporting the elderly, raising children, in the case of inadequate social security, consumption scale expansion, only because the income of residents has increased.
Banks are very willing to do personal mortgage loans, after several rounds of real estate regulation education, residents are also very high willingness to increase leverage! There's a joke online about saving and not borrowing:
You put your money in a bank, you're used to buy a house, you end up renting a house that someone else bought with your money, and you have to pay your rent. After that, someone else uses your rent and still has a mortgage, you may also use your money to buy a house to marry the goddess of his mind, finally, also invites you to attend the wedding.
At the end of 2017, the net deposit balance of household sector was not only more than 500 billion yuan lower than the historical peak in February 2015, but also lower than the balance at the end of 2012. The decline of this index slowed in 2018, but it was not reversed.
Conventional method, few enterprises have the strength to be developers, so pre-sale, the residents'savings to deceive the hands, go to the bank loans, the residents deposit bank savings and then get the hands, and then these residents savings, are replaced by reinforced concrete!
Previously, the core competitiveness of developers and corporate barriers were not research and development, not sales, or even corporate management, but who had a good relationship with the bank and who could get a low-interest bank loan.
After 2008, China's savings rate began to decline all the way, the national savings rate fell to less than 50% in 2011, the cumulative decline in 2017 compared to 2008 a percentage point, the resident savings rate compared to 2008 a cumulative decline of a percentage point.
According to the OECD, the three countries with the highest resident saving rates in 2016 were Switzerland, Sweden and Mexico, with values of%,% and%, respectively, and the UK with the lowest rate of resident saving at only%. And in 2016, China's resident saving rate was as high as%, about twice that of Swiss residents and about 22 times that of British residents.
Compare the numbers: the real estate industry has exploded in the past decade, and our gross national savings rate has fallen by one percentage point and the resident savings rate by one percentage point.
If the saving rate is halved, say, by 15 percentage points, then the scale will be far beyond imagination, and the amount of money will have an earth-shaking impact on social wealth!
Strengthen risk prevention and control in key areas. Banking and insurance institutions should implement the positioning of \"housing and not speculation,\" strictly enforce the requirements of real estate financial supervision, prevent the illegal flow of funds into the real estate market, curb the rapid growth of the leverage ratio of residents, and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.
It took nearly 40 years for the U.S. household sector's leverage to rise from 20% to more than 50%, while China has spent less than 10 years, much less than the U.S., and has soared even faster in recent years.
According to incomplete statistics on the CBRC's official website, as of December 26 last year, the CBRC system had issued 4108 fines (calculated on the date of publication) for banking institutions and insurance institutions. The tight spell hasn't come down yet, and the real estate pain continues.
\"The world is not the world of the wolf and the little white rabbit, but the world under the rule of gray. The answer is to learn how to stick to the gray rule.
sandalwood should also use this idea to look at the future real estate market: real estate \"the golden age is over, the silver age is still there, and the silver age has a cycle \". And real estate is not only up and down, there are up and down the extent of the score is very clear.
Most of the cities above the prefecture level north of latitude 31 N are in decline, with an average drop, while cities above the prefecture level south of latitude 31 N are in an upward, average rise.
Ye Tan teacher often said that after the analysis of the city, can no longer be divided according to one, two, three, four, five lines, and then such a division, it appears too layman, the correct way is: according to the urban agglomeration, urban agglomeration to divide.
Our policy trend is to focus on the development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations.
It's simpler to go to the city: on december 15th, the magazine called out 10 cities: beijing, shanghai, guangzhou, shenzhen, hangzhou, nanjing, wuhan, zhengzhou, chengdu and xi'an.
Market upheaval, stock markets, investment strategies, have to be adjusted once a month, quantitative trading almost once a week, not always a set of strategies to make money.